Nber recession dating dating expectations in the 1980 s
Q: Obviously you expressed in the Committee meeting last Thursday your view that the recession was probably over and others expressed their views that it wasn’t?
A: We have a standing rule not to characterize the views or remarks of others in our deliberations.
The BLS report on April 2 was particularly encouraging, after so many job losses in 20.
Q: But there is a glaring difference between your views, particularly as expressed in your blogpost of April 5, which was widely reported, and the Committee’s public statement that it was too soon to call an end to the recession.
The National Bureau of Economic Research dates recession peaks and.
In Section, an overview of the NBER and programmed dating procedures is given, in Section.
Here are some of the questions that have come up the most often, and my own personal answers, speaking for myself and not the Q: What importance should individual investors, workers and consumers attach to this announcement by the NBER? Q: Why would the Business Cycle Dating Committee put out such a statement, if it was a non-event?
A: The press was bound to find out that there had been an in-person meeting (as it did), and so the confusion created by issuing the statement was probably less than the confusion that would have been created by remaining mysteriously silent.
Although one cannot rule out new shocks, and the construction sector in any case will recover only slowly, it is indeed fair to say that the financial sector where the crisis originated has stabilized. In fact, if the criterion is the level of the unemployment rate rate then 1982 was worse than the current episode.